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Investment Updates · Daily Market Pulse

Oil slides on peace hopes; AI funding bites

Tuesday, 3 November 2026 Mixed

Oil fell about 7.5% in a day on US-Iran peace-talk hopes, and Oracle's US$20B stock-and-bond raise (shares −8.8%) dragged tech and chips (Nasdaq −1.1%, chip ETF −2.7%) while banks, retailers and materials rose. In Singapore, OCBC led the banks lower (STI −1.4%). US midterms are today; Australia's RBA decides at 11:30am SGT.

−7.4%Oil, biggest drop since July
−8.8%Oracle on US$20B raise
−1.4%STI, OCBC −3.3%
55.5US factory index, beat

Markets

Where markets closed

S&P 5007,541.4−2.4% 3 mo
7,6007,7007,800 5 Aug2 Nov
Nasdaq25,164−4.5% 3 mo
26,00027,000 5 Aug2 Nov
Straits Times Index5,303.8−5.0% 3 mo
5,4005,6005,800 5 Aug2 Nov
Gold3,956.6−8.1% 3 mo
4,0004,500 5 Aug2 Nov
WTI crude oil96.26+28.0% 3 mo
80.00100 5 Aug2 Nov
US 10-year yield4.89%+27 bp 3 mo
4.75%5.00%5.25% 5 Aug2 Nov
MarketLevelDay1 monthYear to date
S&P 5007,541.4−0.5%−2.4%+10.2%
Nasdaq Composite25,164−1.1%−7.5%+8.3%
Straits Times Index5,303.8−1.4%−5.9%+14.2%
Hang Seng Index23,393+0.4%−5.0%−8.7%
US 10-year Treasury yield4.89%−3 bp−38 bp+73 bp
US dollar index101.8−0.1%−0.1%+3.6%
Gold3,956.6+1.5%−4.9%−8.9%
WTI crude oil96.26−7.5%+5.7%+67.6%

Closing levels before 7am Singapore time on Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Sectors

Which parts of the market moved

US sectors, gold and Treasuries: one dayClose of 2 Nov · ETF price changeRoseFell

Leadership rotates

When one part fell, another held up

Oil's drop: energy fell, fuel users roseMon 2 Nov 2026RoseFell

A 6.4-point gap in one day. For the year it is the other way round: energy +50.4% vs consumer discretionary −1.1%.

AIA funds: Asia equities vs health care1 month to 27 Oct 2026 (latest AIA prices)RoseFell

A gap of about 12.5 points in a month, while for the year they are close (Regional Equity +13.2% vs Health Care +10.9%). AIA prices lag, so the late-October tech sell-off is not yet included.

This is why a portfolio is reviewed, not just chosen: leadership changes, and regular rebalancing keeps the mix in line with your goals.

Lessons from the market

What today teaches

Prices built on fear can fall on hope

Oil rose more than 10% in October as markets feared a wider US-Iran conflict after the US midterms. On Monday 2 Nov 2026, leaders on both sides said they were open to talks, and oil fell about 7.5% in a single day, its steepest drop since July. Energy shares fell about 4%, while companies that benefit from cheaper fuel, such as retailers and travel companies, rose. Nothing had actually been signed: the move was the fear premium leaving the price.

The principle

When a price rises because of fear of an event, a large part of it can disappear the moment the fear eases, even before anything is resolved. Chasing headline-driven moves means buying the premium near its peak.

The numbers
  • WTI −7.4% to US$96.46 and Brent −7.6% to US$104.77 on 2 Nov 2026 (CNBC)
  • Oil gained more than 10% in October 2026 on escalation fears (CNBC)
  • 2 Nov 2026: US energy sector ETF (XLE) −4.0% vs US consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +2.4%
  • Year to 2 Nov 2026: WTI futures about +68%, XLE +50.4%, XLY −1.1%
  • European travel and leisure stocks rose more than 3% on 2 Nov 2026 (Trading Economics)

Sources: cnbc.com · tradingeconomics.com · finance.yahoo.com · finance.yahoo.com

Ignore the election, not the drift

US voters go to the polls on 3 Nov 2026, and the headlines are loud. History is calmer: in a CNBC review of the 11 midterms from 1982 to 2022, the S&P 500 was higher a year later every time. What does change portfolios is quieter. In the month to 27 Oct, the AIA Regional Equity Fund (Asia) fell 7.6% while the AIA International Health Care Fund rose 4.8%, so a portfolio set up in September already looks different today. The election isn't a reason to act; drift is a reason to review.

The principle

Political events grab attention but have rarely changed long-run market direction. What quietly changes a client's risk is how far the mix drifts as different parts take turns leading.

The numbers
  • S&P 500 averaged +13.7% in the year after the 11 midterms from 1982 to 2022, positive every time (CNBC analysis, 2 Nov 2026)
  • Midterms that left Democrats in Congress with a Republican president (1986, 1990, 2006): average −0.5% on the day, +10.9% a year later (CNBC)
  • AIA Regional Equity Fund −7.6% vs AIA International Health Care Fund +4.8%, 1 month to 27 Oct 2026 (FAT)
  • Year to 27 Oct 2026: AIA Regional Equity +13.2%, AIA International Health Care +10.9% (FAT)

Sources: cnbc.com · AIA fund prices