Book a meeting

Investment Updates · Daily Market Pulse

October's leaders stumbled; gold failed as shelter

Sunday, 1 November 2026 Risk-off

Weekend recap: October ended with the Nasdaq down 5.3% for the month and gold at its lowest since October 2025, while health care and energy sat at 52-week highs. OpenAI cut its funding round to US$20B, and next week brings the US midterms (Tue), rate decisions in Australia and the UK, and US jobs data (Fri).

−5.3%Nasdaq in October
−27%Gold below its high
52-wk highUS health care sector
$20BOpenAI round, cut from $30B

Markets

Where markets closed

S&P 5007,580.1−2.0% 3 mo
7,6007,7007,800 4 Aug30 Oct
Nasdaq25,437−4.3% 3 mo
26,00027,000 4 Aug30 Oct
Straits Times Index5,376.7−4.2% 3 mo
5,4005,6005,800 4 Aug30 Oct
Gold3,898.9−6.1% 3 mo
4,0004,500 4 Aug30 Oct
WTI crude oil104.1+37.4% 3 mo
80.00100 4 Aug30 Oct
US 10-year yield4.93%+30 bp 3 mo
4.75%5.00%5.25% 4 Aug30 Oct
MarketLevelDay1 monthYear to date
S&P 5007,580.1−1.8%−1.1%+10.7%
Nasdaq Composite25,437−2.9%−5.3%+9.4%
Straits Times Index5,376.7−0.4%−5.1%+15.7%
Hang Seng Index23,294+1.5%−5.0%−9.1%
US 10-year Treasury yield4.93%−6 bp−31 bp+77 bp
US dollar index102+0.1%+0.0%+3.8%
Gold3,898.9−3.3%−7.2%−10.2%
WTI crude oil104.1+2.1%+12.1%+81.3%

Closing levels before 7am Singapore time on Sunday, 1 November 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Sectors

Which parts of the market moved

US sectors, gold and Treasuries: one dayClose of 30 Oct · ETF price changeRoseFell

Leadership rotates

When one part fell, another held up

Two 'safe havens', opposite directionsFri 30 Oct 2026RoseFell

Over the month to 30 Oct the gap was wider: GLD −7.1% vs TLT +5.3%. Rate-hike fears hurt gold while a flight to safety pulled bond yields down.

AIA funds: emerging markets vs global bonds1 month to 27 Oct 2026 (latest AIA prices)RoseFell

A gap of about 11.7 points in one month, the reverse of the year so far (Emerging Markets +13.7% YTD vs Global Bond −3.3%). AIA prices lag, so the 29-30 Oct tech sell-off is not yet included.

This is why a portfolio is reviewed, not just chosen: leadership changes, and regular rebalancing keeps the mix in line with your goals.

Lessons from the market

What today teaches

The safe haven that didn't protect (this time)

On Friday 30 Oct 2026, when tech stocks fell sharply, many investors expected gold to rise as the classic 'safe haven'. Instead gold fell about 3.5% to its lowest level since early October 2025, and silver fell about 6%, because fears of more interest-rate hikes made assets that pay no interest less attractive. What did cushion the fall that day were long-term US government bonds, health care, consumer staples and energy. Gold is now about 27-28% below its high and down about 10% this year.

The principle

No single asset is a permanent safe haven. What protects a portfolio depends on what is causing the stress: gold tends to struggle when the worry is rising interest rates, while bonds and defensive sectors did the cushioning this time.

The numbers
  • Gold (Dec futures) −3.3% to US$3,898.90 on 30 Oct 2026; about 26.7% below its 52-week high and −10.2% YTD
  • Gold settled at US$3,884.90, lowest since 3 Oct 2025 (MacroMicro, 30 Oct 2026)
  • Silver about −6% on 30 Oct 2026 (MacroMicro)
  • 30 Oct 2026: gold ETF GLD −3.5% vs long US Treasuries ETF TLT +0.4%; US 10-year yield fell to about 4.9%
  • 1 month to 30 Oct 2026: GLD −7.1% vs TLT +5.3%

Sources: en.macromicro.me · t.me · finance.yahoo.com · finance.yahoo.com

This year's winner, this month's loser: why the boring part matters

Emerging-market shares were one of 2026's better stories: the AIA Emerging Markets Equity Fund was still up about 13.7% for the year by 27 Oct. But in the month to 27 Oct it fell 10.7%, as Asian chip stocks and China slid. Over the same month the AIA Global Bond Fund, down 3.3% for the year and easy to dismiss, rose about 1%, and the AIA Elite Balanced Fund stayed slightly positive. The part of the portfolio that looked useless for most of the year was the part doing its job in October.

The principle

Different parts of a portfolio take turns doing the heavy lifting. Rebalancing (moving some gains from what ran up into what lagged) is how a portfolio stays matched to the risk the client actually chose.

The numbers
  • AIA Emerging Markets Equity Fund −10.7% vs AIA Global Bond Fund +1.0%, 1 month to 27 Oct 2026 (FAT)
  • YTD to 27 Oct 2026: AIA Emerging Markets Equity +13.7%, AIA Global Bond −3.3% (FAT)
  • AIA Elite Balanced Fund +0.4% over 1 month to 27 Oct 2026 (FAT)
  • China official manufacturing PMI 49.3 in Oct 2026, down from 50.1

Sources: AIA fund prices · tradingeconomics.com